What lessons for a conflict over Taiwan might China be learning from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the global responses to the war? And what are the strategic implications of these lessons? To answer these questions, I examine how the war in Ukraine may be shaping China’s assessments of the political, military and economic costs of military action against Taiwan, and how these assessments may influence China’s decision to use force against Taiwan.

Several caveats are necessary before proceeding. First, it is too soon to understand fully the lessons that China might be learning from the war in Ukraine. The war is ongoing and its outcome remains uncertain. Second, very few, if any, publicly available authoritative Chinese assessments exist that could be used to inform such analysis. As with China’s study of previous conflicts such as the Gulf War or Kosovo War, preliminary PLA military assessments of lessons learned are not openly published.Footnote1 What lessons China may be learning remains somewhat speculative at this point.

I first review China’s current approach to Taiwan to provide a context and baseline for how lessons learned from the war in Ukraine might alter China’s calculus regarding the use of force against the island. Next, I examine lessons China may be learning in three domains: political and diplomatic, military and battlefield, and economic. Taken together, on balance, these lessons suggest that the costs of military action against Taiwan are greater than China may have anticipated before Russia’s invasion. In the short to medium term, these costs will likely induce greater caution in Beijing vis-à-vis the use of force to achieve unification—so long as Beijing does not view the use of force as the only option left.